So four big guns. And now for the long tails. In this case, I use the term to mean increments on top of larger bases; but this by no means implies they will be small or unprofitable; in fact, quite the opposite.

Virtual RAN is the first, and we refer to it as our Radio Cloud Architecture. As we virtualize the core, the obvious next step has always been to virtualize the radio access network. While more challenging due to real-time processing demands and latency constraints, it is doable and will happen. Through most of 2015, vendors investigated the best architectural solutions to implement practical virtual RAN solutions. For Nokia, that phase has completed and we are now firmly on a path of execution. Proof of Concept systems that have been around since 2014 will now evolve towards commercial systems in 2016. Note the timing. If we imagine that Radio Cloud systems start in 2016, and the first 5G systems shortly thereafter, would it not make sense to combine the two? Or putting it another way, will all 5G RANs be virtualized? Excellent question and one we are all actively considering.

As for other long tails, a couple of other technologies have silently been worked over the last couple of years that will start to see their pay days in 2016.

First, LTE-U (or LAA) and LWA, which are, put simply, the coupling of LTE and unlicensed spectrum to provide a better user experience. Also hotly debated due to perceived impacts to the Wi-Fi industry, products will come to fruition in 2016. The impact to users will be gains in terms of downlink throughput, and to operators the ability to take advantage of the large 2.4GHz and 5GHz free spectrum blocks. That in turn may be one tool of many to help support new data offers, like unlimited streaming of content that looks like it has just landed in the U.S. But we shouldn’t limit this long tail to just LTE coupling to Wi-Fi. Multiple Service Operators (MSOs) such as cable operators also have an interest in offering unlicensed voice and data solutions. With improvements in VoWi-Fi and authentication simplifications that come from HotSpot 2.0, MSO infringement into telecom territory will continue.

Secondly, how about those Small Cells? There’s been talk for years about adding tens of thousands of Small Cells to existing macro networks, but never really happened to the levels expected. That may be about to change in 2016. The reason is that products are getting better (with things like dual-band, Carrier Aggregation and LTE-U being the norm now), and more attention is being been put on the total solution. With a greater focus on permitting, wireless backhaul, different power levels, pole heights, and fiber and power access, once prohibitive cost levels are starting to drop. In addition, there’s a growing recognition that Small Cells are a highly effective and complementary part of one’s toolkit for designing networks from the start, and not only as an after-thought. It’s hard to say if we are at a global tipping point yet; but certainly, we envision a huge upswing in 2016 for both outdoor and indoor systems.

The Package

With four big guns and three long tails, 2016 will prove to be a very interesting time indeed for the industry, where new technologies will start to dominate the historically somewhat flat and predictable patterns of the past.

Whenever there is change and disruption, there are winners and losers, on both the vendor and operator sides. With the mergers and acquisitions and partnering setups we’ve seen over the last few months, it’s clear that everyone is getting ready for the war by getting access to the right weapons. Who will win and who will lose may not be fully determined in 2016, but big guns and long tails are things to watch.