By: Michael Murphy

Introduction

In 2014, I suggested that 2015 would be an inflection point due to the start of cloud based deployments and the start of serious 5G activity, which together had the potential to fundamentally change the telecom industry. So what really happened and what’s up for 2016?

Retrospection

It’s true that commercial cloud deployments did start in 2015; however, this was typically for single network functions like new EPC or IMS installations. What’s coming in 2016 and 2017 will be more of the same, but with the result being multi-function cloud networks; and that’s really where the long sought after agility, OPEX and CAPEX gains will start to come. The reason is that clouds don’t really bring substantive change without scale. However, even with these early steps, the change to a horizontal purchasing model has started, where operators buy hardware, stacks, and VNFs, independently. That’s big.

And 5G? It did of course progress throughout the year, but perhaps the biggest news came in September. At the CTIA event, Verizon threw down the gauntlet (as did Nokia), and challenged the industry to deliver pre-standard solutions in 2017 just ahead of Korea’s 2018 Olympics and Japan’s 2020 Olympics. With that, we now have the big three (USA, Korea, Japan) having established lines in the sand. The 3GPP R13 meeting held in September also kicked off discussions on 5G with a preliminary view of timelines and study items, which was followed by the WRC15 meeting in November that looked at cmWave and mmWave candidates for WRC19. With those, we can say 5G work has started, formally.

Time will tell if these predicted inflection points will result in truly fundamental change going forward, but I do think so.

Forethought

Looking forward into 2016, we can see these two big guns continuing, two new ones starting, and a few long tails. These will be very interesting developments indeed.

Cloud computing will continue to progress towards the new normal by 2017, and there are parts that are predictable and parts that are still being defined. With the realization of increasingly dense, complex, and stringent transport requirements, there’s an invigorating discussion underway between several large operators and vendors on how to best use SDN, and employ strict control /user plane separation to both simplify and automate transport connectivity. We expect some large architectural changes to come out of those discussions, with baby steps showing up in 2016.

Regarding 5G, with 3GPP work started, and lines in the sand established, the race is now on to develop pre-standard systems that can be applied to limited use cases. Proof of Concept systems that exist today will evolve, mature, and begin early field trials in 2016. The challenges are immense. Chipsets, CPEs, antennas, wireless backhaul, frequency selection, propagation and penetration considerations, are just a small list of hurdles ahead. All of this will happen in parallel to standards being developed. It’s a race, and an ultra-marathon one at that.

Are there any new big guns? Yes. The Internet of Things (IoT) is a wonderful buzzword that encapsulates more or less everything, and for that reason is hard to get a grip on at times. More practically though, in the wireless 3GPP world, it has come down to a single standard that is hotly debated, referred to as narrowband IoT, or NB-IoT, a 200KHz solution. It has LTE and clean slate alternatives being considered, with closure on the UL/DL selections expected at the next R13 RAN meeting in December. There is also a wider band LTE-M solution with a 1.4MHz carrier. Together, they could be loosely called high and low end solutions for cellular IoT. They will provide a foundation for the development of low cost chipsets that will enable the cellular industry to better compete with the dominant, lower cost, somewhat proprietary systems that exist today. It’s what many have been waiting for. That’s a big gun.

Finally, 3.5GHz. It’s hard to imagine how a frequency used by the U.S. Department of Defense could impact all of telecom, maybe forever - but it will. With the FCC’s announcement of the spectrum sharing rules for 3.5GHz, a paradigm has been set that may be applied to all future auctions. It’s a grand experiment with one of far reaching consequences. The associated WINN Forum also recently produced a technical report on the SAS to user (AP) interface. Combined, these set the stage for a new way of using spectrum that includes a general access option, permitting new operators to enter the telecom market in a cost effective way. In short, the 3.5GHz rules both change how spectrum is used and who can use it. It’s most certainly a big gun in the U.S., and one that could spill into other global regulatory regions. We expect products to start showing up in 2016.