Users will demand increasingly connected mobile-social experiences, and operators will continue to make improvements in broadband connectivity options. Similarly, as more content is optimized for mobile devices, consumer demand for LTE will grow at a steady pace. For these reasons, the number of 4G LTE mobile-broadband subscribers worldwide will more than double, from 105 million to approximately 220 million, over the course of the next year, and 4G LTE revenues will exceed $340 billion by 2017, according to Juniper Research.

The US as a model for others

It’s likely that the largest US carriers will serve as a model for others in the rest of the world, says Chris Nicoll, lead analyst for Analysys Mason’s Wireless Networks and Spectrum research program. In his January report “LTE Lessons from Market Leaders in the USA” he writes, “The two largest 3G network operators, Verizon Wireless and AT&T, have leveraged aggressive national build-out schedules, innovative no-premium pricing, and extensive smartphone portfolios to drive users to their 4G networks,” allowing the former to move 50 percent of its mobile data to its LTE network in just two years. Nicoll predicts that the total amount of 3G connections in the US will shrink in 2013, leaving LTE on top by 2015.

To date, the leading stateside LTE operators have shown a remarkable maturation when it comes to pricing strategy. They continue to increase their average revenue per user (ARPU) and recently moved from flat-rate and tiered pricing to multi-device pricing plans, effectively monetizing the consumer trend toward multiple devices.

As this evolution takes place, competitors will answer with flat-rate plans designed to attract value buyers, but long-term monetization will depend on operators’ creativity and tenacity in balancing innovative services with the need for reasonable price points and recognition of consumers’ aversion to bill shock.