The Societal Effects of GenAI

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There is information leaking out of Ukraine indicating that autonomous weapons are already appearing on the battlefield there.

happen with creative thinking. It is too early for definitive research in this area. However, there are a number of early studies that point in this direction.

In the past, in both creative and critical areas (including Computer Science related), the work normally done by entry-level people gives those people the experience necessary to become senior. Now, those jobs are the first to be taken over by AI. The concern is that as senior people retire, there will be no people coming up to take their place. Some argue that this is not a problem. Not a problem because by then, AI will have taken the senior jobs too.

Increased Psychotic and Neurotic Behavior

There are increasing reports of people falling into romantic or religious relationships with AI systems. Also, there has been a lot of work on making AI systems, particularly chatbots, tailor their responses to the particular user. This has the potential to amplify pre-existing tendencies in neurotic or psychotic behavior.

Autonomous Weapons

Finally, AI autonomous weapons have the potential to change in unpredictable ways how armies, police forces, and individuals operate in conflict situations. There is information leaking out of Ukraine indicating that autonomous weapons are already appearing on the battlefield there. How this plays out in the geopolitical domain with nation states, rogue nations, non-governmental organizations, terrorist groups, and individuals is unclear at this point. Similarly, the impact on policing, criminal activity, civil liberties, etc., is also unclear. However, the experience with criminal cybersecurity activity indicates that the criminals are likely to be early adopters.

Period of Adjustment Challenge - Avoiding Chaos

The brief overview of the societal effects above indicates the seriousness of the adjustment challenge. If the adjustment period is not well handled, it can lead to chaos - very destructive chaos. The best way to maximize the benefits of GenAI while minimizing its downsides is to develop a clear image of what society will look like on the other side of the period of adjustment. If people have that image to work towards, it will make the difficulties encountered on the way there bearable. Without such an image, it is easy for people to fall into despair. Then, to act out from this despair in a destructive fashion.

The economic challenges of large-scale job loss may appear to be the most compelling. Looking at them, it is clear that a different economic structure will be needed. Some have proposed a universal basic income. There may be other effective alternatives.

Similarly, the other parts of the taxonomy challenge other keystone institutions of society. These will be forced to adapt too but each of these are not happening separately. They are all interrelated and facing challenges at the same time.

What is clear is that finding a way through these challenges needs serious work now.

The people who best understand the technology (and what it can do) are those creating the frontier LLMs and their applications. Unfortunately, the companies that employ these people see the company in a race that allows for no time to stop and think about consequences.

This means that some way external to the company needs to be found where these people can engage. There is an organization example that comes from the Cold War arms race, where the scientists and engineers who were developing the weapons came together as individuals to work on managing the society-wide effects. Something similar is needed for AI. Maybe it could be called a Union of Concerned AI Scientists and Engineers.

Conclusion

The taxonomy gives us an overview framework of the dramatic impacts on society. While having tremendous productivity benefits, these impacts are so broad and deep that they are taking us into a difficult period of adjustment. If the period of adjustment is not well handled, chaos can result. One way to meet this challenge is to enlist the scientists and engineers who are creating the technology to help build a positive vision of the transformed society. A vision that we can work towards. Something that might help with this would be the creation of a Union of Concerned AI Scientists and Engineers.