Juniper Research Predicts Agentic Commerce User Surge

Key Takeaways:

• Agentic commerce users will reach 1.3 billion by 2031, a nearly 350% increase from under 300 million this year.
• Growth is driven by direct support from major retailers, increasing comfort with AI, and greater availability of agentic payment infrastructure.
• Card payments currently lead in underpinning agentic commerce, with card networks involved in early pilots and frameworks.
• The report recommends integrating popular local payment methods for stronger growth, despite initial card dominance.
• The market research suite provides comprehensive analysis, forecasts of 38,000 datapoints, and competitor leaderboards.

A new study by global tech strategists Juniper Research has found that the number of agentic commerce users will reach 1.3 billion by 2031; rising from less than 300 million this year. This dramatic growth of nearly 350% is being driven by:

• Emergence of direct support by major retailers
• Growing comfort levels with AI systems
• Increased availability of agentic payment infrastructure

The research identified that while user familiarity and trust with agentic commerce is low at present, this will rapidly change as AI further establishes itself as a normal part of day-to-day life. As retailers increasingly roll out agentic capabilities, and infrastructure frameworks continue to emerge, agentic commerce will move into the mainstream.

Card Infrastructure Leading Payment Infrastructure, for Now

The report acknowledged card payments as taking an early lead in underpinning payments within agentic commerce; with card networks being heavily involved in early pilots and frameworks. However, the report identified a user’s ability to pay using their chosen method as hugely important to user behaviour, and recommends that agentic commerce platforms prioritise integrating popular local payment methods to achieve the strongest growth potential.

"Cards increasingly support agent payments through tokenisation, but card domination within agentic commerce is not in the market’s best interests, given how important payment preferences are within eCommerce. If agentic commerce fails to support local payments, such as digital wallets and Account-to-Account payments, the market will limit its overall growth potential," said Nick Maynard, VP of Research, Juniper Research.

The new market research suite offers the most comprehensive assessment of the agentic commerce market to date; providing insightful market analysis and forecasts of 38,000 datapoints over a five-year period. In addition to two Competitor Leaderboards across payment infrastructure and AI developers, it includes detailed evaluation of current and future market opportunities.