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In the evolving world, being out of communication range—not only voice communication, but also data and the nearly infinite expanse that is the Web—is tantamount to uprooting for a life on Walden Pond. Past distinctions between “wired” and “wireless” may not disappear entirely, but functional differences will blur as “fixed-mobile convergence” solutions bridge the gap. The strategic emphasis that telcos have placed on their wireless portfolios in recent years is well-founded, but overall connectivity, however delivered, is the real end-game. The providers that succeed will offer service combinations that leverage traditional broadband, 3G and 4G wireless, shared Wi-Fi, and picocells to satisfy demand for always-on connectivity.
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Providers will compete by offering
options to customers on multiple
levels, giving them the power to
employ the services they want, when
they want. |
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Perhaps even
more dramatic will be the revolution
already underway in SMB and branch office
bandwidth, as Metro Ethernet and copper
bonding technologies enable these customers
to cost-effectively obtain service greater
than the one or two T-1 level, rendering
the “metro bottleneck” obsolete.
In rural and other
underserved areas, municipal and commercial
fiber initiatives, as well as the array
of broadband wireless
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Dimension
2: Bandwidth
The second
dimension of telecommunications
services is bandwidth. Hand-in-glove
with the always-on
lifestyle is the insatiable
demand for more content
delivered faster. Just as
broadband, DSL, and cable
modem services replaced
dial-up service, higher-speed
and burstable broadband
services are becoming widely
available. Telcos are rolling
out services capable of
50 Mbps and more, by deploying
fiber to the home (e.g.,
Verizon’s FiOS) and
pulling fiber deeper in
their networks (e.g. AT&T’s
U-Verse). Cable MSOs are
eyeing comparable feats
by using DOCSIS 3.0.
Moore’s
Law famously described that
the exponential increase
in computer processing capability
and optical bandwidth has
exhibited a similar penchant
for doubling and then doubling
again3. The advent of dense
wave division multiplexing
(DWDM) equipment has enabled
service providers to squeeze
more beams of light onto
a single fiber strand, increasing
overall network capacity
by an order of magnitude
or more.
The implications for
“big pipe” services are
obvious: today’s GigE and 10-Gig
circuits will soon be 40 and 100 Gbps,
while aggregation links will similarly
see proportional growth.
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technologies soon coming to market, will make these bandwidth gains more universal. The “NFL cities” will continue to be fiber rich compared to smaller markets, but a majority of users will find world-class bandwidth commonplace, stoking expectations for further speed gains. As video, especially HD video, becomes a critical piece of providers’ bundles, and as adoption of interactive and collaborative applications picks up, minimum bandwidth requirements and demand will continue to increase.
Dimension 3:
Geographic Bredth
The third dimension
of telecom competition is the geographic
breadth of telecommunications services.
Recent history has illustrated the inherent
advantage of a broad service footprint
for both wireline and wireless services.
These behemoths benefit not only from
economies of scale on the operations
side, but also from the perception of
greater value among users—such
as the network effects of “free
mobile to mobile” calling on wireless
plans and single-sourcing WAN access
for multi-site businesses.
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