With that in mind, it's clear that the numbers I've thrown around above only tell part of the story. After all, AT&T isn't sitting on its hands while subs and revenue head for the exits. What about the wireless revenue?
It's true: AT&T is a juggernaut in the wireless space, and if the T-Mobile USA acquisition does make it through all the proper regulatory hoops, it'll only get bigger. Meanwhile, Comcast has a keen understanding of how to integrate elements of the wireless experience (as evidenced by its iPad app prowess), but lacks a meaningful wireless presence.
Therefore, if we had to call it (and AT&T would contend that U-Verse is far too young to do a thing like that), we could say that Comcast has won the home and AT&T has won the wireless space.
However, let's continue to assume that the changing definition of the home I mentioned before holds true. Let's also recognize that it's primarily the home networks that are constantly besieged by over-the-top data accessed by customers who don't expect massive overage charges in the same way that wireless customers might. Furthermore, wireline calling, VoIP or traditional, has lost so much luster that the triple-play scenario may lack some of the punch it once had.
In short, might there be a chance that Comcast has captured the home just as the home has started to do what those roundtable members I mentioned said it would do? And if consumers are taking the show on the road, how easy is it to follow them? What's the point of being king of the mountain if it happens to be Mt. Vesuvius?
Still, even as Comcast seems to have the home market well in hand, AT&T insists that they are not to be counted out. The most recent strategy coming from AT&T is to use extant wireless enthusiasm to draw in lucrative U-Verse customers (and at an ARPU of $168, what company couldn't afford a few of those?)
Regardless of the outcome, however, it's fascinating to watch these two massive companies do battle. One seems to hug the ground, tethered and secure, protecting the ground below. The other seems to be climbing into the mist, free from terrestrial constraint, but perhaps leaving its underside exposed.
And in this way, the dogfight rages on.
