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It is not always best to look only
for the ultimate end of a game. Sometimes
the outcome is too far in the future
to rationalize the strong commitment
of current resources to it (an extreme
example of this is the global warming
dilemma). Other times the stopping
point - ending time and state - cannot
be known. In this case, it is often
best to search for stable equilibrium,
and then to pick out and work toward
those which appear to present the
best results or utility. This may
be why progress actually occurs in
society even when many short term
choices of best interest result in
sub-optimal returns. In game theory,
one way to find these equilibria
is
“by
searching focal
points,
that is, features of some
strategies that [the game players]
believe will be salient to
other players,
and that they believe other
players will believe to be
salient to them. (For example,
if two people want to meet
on a given day in a big city
but can't contact each other
to arrange a specific
time and place, both might
sensibly go to the city's most
prominent downtown plaza at
noon.) [http://plato.stanford.edu
/entries/game-theory/]
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Growth
is still occurring from an overall
international perspective, so the
industry will be worth perhaps 1.6
trillion dollars in another five
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Nevertheless,
attending the forums is always
cost effective, because learning
about common trends
and communication with other
players always provides better
information for playing a
winning hand in the overall
game – even when you
decide to buck the common
trend. The cost of getting
this information in forums
and standards groups is actually
relatively low. This is why
it is important for planners
to go to forum and standards
meetings. When it is vitally
important to make the right
future planning decision,
attending forums, trade shows,
conferences or other focal
points also becomes vital
- as is reading from journals
like this one.
Capital
choices
In the Insight Research
report, the value of our
telecommunications industry
is shown to currently exceed
1.2 trillion dollars. Growth
is still occurring from an
overall international perspective,
so the industry will be worth
perhaps 1.6 trillion dollars
in another five years. This
growth may be driven by fresh
product demand and extensive
new markets, but it’s
fueled by capital investment
- Billions of dollars worth
of investment each year.
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While this is abstract,
it nevertheless gives a strong rationale
for the existence of forums and standards
organizations. These are places where
we can meet and discuss relative merits
and values of future choices and then
commonly seek to cooperate to achieve
certain equilibria. I keep arguing
for forums even when I must acknowledge
that forums are notoriously inefficient
even when communication among attendees
is very good and honest. Among forum
members goals will be different and
some players will always see advantage
by increasing private interests over
achieving the common equilibrium.
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Capital investment
is a limited, expensive resource.
It should be committed to specific
projects with very careful
planning. If you invest in
a non-winning technology
or a product the consumers
do not want, the capital
is wasted. A bad choice can
cost a company more that the
total cost of your lifetime salary.
Commitment of these resources is
a competitive game - projects complete
for these resources and resulting
products compete with other products
for the consumer’s
interest. How do you choose which
is best?
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