OSS Needs to Leap Forward (cont'd)

Let's think clearly what this means for the OSS environments of the future. No matter how I look at it, I can only see future support systems being relatively cheap to buy, install and maintain. They should be simple in their use, even if they are complex under the surface. If they aren't cheap and simple, they will not be a sympathetic fit for the future networks. Technology systems need each component to be around the same place on the price/performance curve, and telecommunications is no exception.

Would we have had a mobile communications revolution if handsets had been the size and weight of a breezeblock at a cost of $2000 dollars each? No, no matter how low the cost of building base stations and core transport fell. Similarly, I don't believe the network service providers of the future will be prepared to invest more effort time and money in their billing systems than in the network that carries the traffic.

Service providers tell me there is already something of a sympathetic disconnect between the price/performance of networks and the price/performance of OSS environments, and my assessments agree. As networks move further forward, the disparity could grow. Some skeptics believe that it won’t happen for a long time, but the breaking point will happen sooner rather than later.

A Leap Forward or a Slow Crawl?
When the price/performance gap grows large enough to spur people to action, we will see an upsurge of new thinking in the OSS world that will move the whole industry forward in a leap, rather than in painful small steps. Then we will see a shakeout of vendors driven by the impetus of this leap forward, and that will be a healthy thing.

Some of these OSS companies will be newcomers - new kids on the OSS block who perhaps earned their credibility in other business areas such as retail, manufacturing, or even Sim games. They'll have nothing to lose in the old OSS market, and be happy to build for profit in the new one. The new generation of OSS vendors will also include a few who are the smartest of the current breed, who already see what is coming and are working to intersect their future. But in the end, consolidation will happen because smart people in the OSS industry see great business opportunities and want to seize them, not because they are listening to the complaints of today's Service Providers about the current structure of our sector.

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