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- conditions will drive vendors to seriously consider which and how many product lines and lines of business they should be engaged in. Likewise, but potentially to a lesser extent, service providers will make the same kind of business assessments in 2009.” Indeed, in spite of some in the business community putting on brave faces, spending data in the US, real estate markets in Western Europe, and other economic weathervanes all say “danger.” “This means that businesses will be taking a closer look across the board,” said Rainge. “Nortel's move to get bankruptcy protection and the strategic choices being made by Alcatel Lucent and Motorola suggest what the initial phase of consolidation will look like.”
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“We believe that the service providers who invested in 3G are in big trouble.” |
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“I don’t have any real bold prediction,” said Ruzicka. “I’ve heard different things about the demise of WiMax but the truth is that there are markets and geographies where it makes a lot of sense. Not everywhere, but enough to make it a viable business.”
Others see WiMAX as being in a somewhat more precarious position, though still essentially safe. “I think the credit crisis will slow the deployment of WiMAX due to a drop in laptop demand and capital budgets being reduced in CSPs,” said Greene. “But this alone will not kill the technology. I do worry that the sheer number of end stations that are
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- Autonomics: “CSPs should require a high degree of autonomic operation (driven by policy) from all newly deployed devices,” said Greene. “Mobile handsets with autonomics should be a priority deployment because of the sheer number of these and the two year consumer replacement cycle.” However, the need for autonomics doesn't end there, said Greene. “Major network systems should be retrofitted with autonomous management agents so they can respond more quickly to changing network and user patterns with less use of operational resources."
Shifts in the Landscape
The communications world responds to the demands of the wider market, as any agile business sector should. With economic woes dominating the news, will CSPs remain bullish on new technologies? Will there be any changes in the communications landscape regarding prevailing access technologies in the next year or two? Is anyone prepared to make any bold predictions? |
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required will also dampen deployment until end station costs come down and backhaul costs and charges are in line with current build-out costs.”
Still others believe that it is not the builders of WiMAX and other 4G technologies that should be concerned, but rather those who are still scrambling to complete work on 3G. “We believe that the service providers who invested in 3G are in big trouble,” said Barbara Lancaster of LTC, International. “They paid a lot for equipment and spectrum and customers are thoroughly frustrated with the lousy service, which so negatively affects their ability to use all the features of their cool new handsets.” Enter the next generation of mobile technology. “With 4G right around the corner, whether WiMAX or LTE, service providers moving directly from 2.5 to 4 are poised to scoop up those disgruntled customers.” Trevor Hayes, also of LTC, sees this situation (moving to 3G) as being “an example of where doing the right thing at the
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